Eric Schmidt Challenges the Notion of a ‘Manhattan Project for AGI’
In a recent policy paper, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, and Center for AI Safety Director Dan Hendrycks caution against the U.S. pursuing a Manhattan Project-style initiative to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which represents superhuman intelligence. They argue that an aggressive quest for control over superintelligent AI could incite severe retaliation from nations like China, potentially through cyberattacks that could destabilize global relations.
The paper, titled “Superintelligence Strategy”, posits that the notion of a Manhattan Project for AGI assumes that rival nations will tolerate an imbalance in power, which is unlikely. The authors warn that such an arms race could provoke hostile countermeasures that would escalate existing tensions, undermining the very stability the initiative seeks to establish.
This paper was published shortly after a U.S. congressional commission proposed a similar endeavor to fund AGI development, akin to the atomic bomb project of the 1940s. The Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, has emphasized that the U.S. is on the verge of a new Manhattan Project for AI. However, the co-authors argue this approach may not be the most strategic way to compete with China’s advancements in AI technology.
The authors compare the current AGI landscape to a standoff akin to mutually assured destruction in nuclear arms. They suggest that rather than racing toward AI dominance, the U.S. should adopt a defensive posture. Schmidt, Wang, and Hendrycks introduce the idea of Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM), advocating for proactive measures to disable threatening AI initiatives from adversaries, including restricting their access to advanced technology.
They identify a divide within the AI policy discourse between "doomers," who foresee inevitable catastrophic outcomes from unregulated AI development, and "ostriches," who believe that rapid advancement will resolve any issues. The paper proposes a third approach, advocating for a balanced strategy focused on defense rather than purely pursuing AGI.
This perspective is notably significant from Schmidt, who previously asserted the necessity for the U.S. to aggressively outpace China in AI capabilities. As U.S. policies continue to evolve, Schmidt and his co-authors suggest a more cautious and defensive stance might be wiser in navigating the complex landscape of international AI competition.
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